Development of an Accident Risk Assessment Tool for Freight Transport in Finland

A prototype of a computerized accident risk assessment tool for freight transport in Finland has been constructed based on a concept developed in an earlier stage of the study project. The tool is based on a realistic description on the road, rail and waterway networks, and real data on traffic flows and the occurrence of injury accidents on freight transports in Finland. The estimates of accident risk are based on Bayesian models and take into account both accident frequency and severity of consequences. The output from the tool includes the probability of an injury accident and the expected numbers of persons injured or killed within a journey or journeys required to deliver a given amount of cargo from one place to another by the transport means and route as specified by the user. An interactive graphic user interface with map applications is provided to support routing and planning of the transports in the network models. The prototype tool is applicable to freight transport by road, rail, or water, as well as to multimodal transports combining these. The risk of accidents in transshipments and other handling of goods within a specific transport assignment are also considered. The main motivation for the risk assessment approach and the associated prototype tool development has been to supplement the traditional, accident statistics based reactive views of traffic and transport safety with a quantitative risk based proactive approach considered more suitable for the needs of freight transport planning and management, both strategic and operational. The development work has been funded by the Ministry of Transport and Communications of Finland and VTT.